Biden is moving away from the Middle East and trying to get back on good terms with Iran.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia has re-engaged with separate enemies like Iran, Turkey and Qatar.
Experts say this shows Saudi Arabia feels it can no longer rely on the United States.
Saudi Arabia has started reaching out to rivals in the Middle East, suggesting that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman knows that US support for his country is no longer guaranteed.
In April, the Financial Times Report that Saudi Arabia and Iran, which severed diplomatic ties in 2016, were holding secret talks. They came as Saudi Arabia also began to reach out Syria, Iraq, and Oman, working to overcome a ten-year break with turkeyand improving relations with Qatar after the end of their four-year blockade.
Indeed, during a rare interview broadcast on Saudi state television At the end of April, Crown Prince Mohammed, also known as MBS, shocked onlookers with his soothing tone when he said he “seeks good relations with Iran”.
The tone couldn’t be more different from the prince’s past attitude, exemplified in March 2018 when he compared Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Adolf Hitler.
Saudi Arabia’s new engagements with Iran and others indicate the kingdom knows it can no longer count on the United States to support its cause, experts told Insider.
Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has sought to stabilize and reduce the US presence in the Middle East, end of support for the war led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, announcing a withdrawal of troops Afghanistan, and signaling a return to Iran nuclear deal, which President Donald Trump wrested from the United States in 2018.
The United States is Saudi Arabia’s foremost Western ally, and Riyadh has always enjoyed political and military support from the United States.
Over the past two decades, the United States has sold parts of arms to Saudi Arabia, and Washington has regularly pledged to defend Saudi Arabia if he is threatened. With the support of the United States, Saudi Arabia has been encouraged to sever ties with its neighbors or attack its neighbors, as it has done with Turkey and Qatar.
US seen as ‘fundamentally unreliable’ in Middle East
David Schenker, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs at the State Department until January, told Insider the Saudis “don’t know what the United States’ commitment is security “and, therefore, are” more accommodating and seeking a modus operandi with Iran. “
Yasmine Farouk, Visiting Fellow in the Middle East Program of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed.
“They know they can no longer count on the support of the United States if they maintain the same regional policies that they have had from 2015 until now,” she told Insider.
“What Saudi Arabia has done with Qatar and Iran, restarting even closer coordination with the Omanis and doubling down on their relations with Iraq, are all Saudi attempts to rekindle the network of friends which they have lost in recent years. “
“The loss of US support against Iran compounds the feeling of insecurity,” Farouk said. “The Saudis have no other power to fall back on.”
Hussein Ibish, a senior researcher at the Institute for the Arab States of the Gulf in Washington, DC, told Insider that Saudi Arabia is preparing for a future where US support is uncertain.
“One of the things Saudi Arabia is doing is initiating a strategic diversification effort, and all US-aligned countries in the Middle East need to move forward in a situation where the United States are seen as a fundamentally unreliable guarantor as they once were 25 years ago, ”he said.
In the past, the United States has most often led or moderated peace talks between warring factions in the region, but in the case of Iran and Saudi Arabia, the United States says it play no role.
“If they talk, I think that’s generally a good thing,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Financial Times editor-in-chief Roula Khalaf told earlier this month. “If countries speak directly to each other without us in the middle, maybe even better.”
Farouk said, however, that the United States is unlikely to have been unaware of the content of the Saudi-Iranian talks because “the United States always wants to know what is going on.”
While uncertainty over U.S. engagement appears to be key to Saudi Arabia’s decision to engage with Iran, the three experts all pointed out that wider regional fatigue was also to blame.
“All of the major regional payers in the Middle East are somehow exhausted,” Ibish said, “they’re overwhelmed, they’re bogged down, they’re overwhelmed.”
Therefore, Riyadh’s diplomatic whirlwind could simply be a pause, not the end of the story, he said.
“Very few of the underlying causes of the tensions and conflicts that we have seen in recent years have been resolved. It might just be a respite,” Ibish said.
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