Baylor vs Villanova odds, picks and predictions for the March Madness Sweet 16 game

Imagine how different the 2021 NCAA tournament would be if Collin Gillespie hadn’t injured his knee with only two regular-season games left for Villanova.

The Wildcats would likely have been a No.3 or No.4 seed at the lowest, meaning West Virginia might have been knocked down and Villanova might have had to deal with the zone defense complications. of old rival Syracuse. Maybe they would have ended up facing Southern California in the Western region, and Kansas wouldn’t have absorbed a loss so deep it almost sent them back to pre-Naismith times. .

Until 6 p.m. on the Sunday of the selection, the medium is a living work of art. This injury changed everything for Villanova, and yet it didn’t stop the team from making it here.

Then again, Villanova only had to defeat two mid-majors to reach the 2021 NCAA Sweet 16 tournament. It was the ideal scenario in several ways: less demanding opposition, greater opportunity to adjust. to accommodate Gillespie’s absence.

Will the work Villanova does be enough to keep pace with Baylor, the South region’s No.1 seed? This will be by far the best team the Wildcats have played this season. They fought with compatriot Sweet 16er Creighton in the Big East and defeated Big 12 Tournament champion Texas, but the Bears are another step up that ladder. And they have to do it without the central element of their attack.

Here’s everything you need to know about betting Baylor vs Villanova in the 2021 NCAA tournament, including updated odds, trends and our predictions for the Sweet 16 game.

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Baylor vs Villanova odds

  • Propagated: Baylor by 6.5
  • More under: 140.5
  • Moneyline: Baylor -275, Villanova +225

Three betting trends to watch out for

– Since returning from a 3-week COVID hiatus, Baylor has a 3-6 ATS record. They are 1-1 in both games of the NCAA tournament, but easily beat a similar number in their second-round game against Wisconsin.

–Villanova has won each of their two NCAA ATS games, but it hasn’t been a reliable team in that department. Over the season, the Wildcats are 13-13 ATS.

– This is the first game of the whole season in which Villanova enters as an underdog. They were a multi-basket favorite in all but two previous games, when they visited Texas in December and Creighton in February.

Key players at Baylor

Baylor goaltender Jared Butler is the quietest of the five first-team All-Americans this season. All he does is keep his man up, take shots and set up his teammates – OK, he does just about everything, and he doesn’t go unnoticed or he wouldn’t be an All-American with Ayo. Dosunmu, Luka Garza, Cade of OK State Corey Kispert of Cunningham and Gonzaga. Butler averages only 16.9 points, which isn’t great for such a honored player, but he tends to produce the most in the greatest moments. His backcourt partner Davion Mitchell went from a defensive demon to a shooter hitting 46.1% of his three. He was 32.4% last season. Mark Vital is listed as a guard and stands 6-5, but he catches 6.7 rebounds per game and consistently defends big opponents.

Key players in Villanova

Gillespie being injured, Villanova had planned to use Justin Moore as the first replacement. In his first game in this role, Moore injured his ankle, which limited his effectiveness in the Big East tournament. However, he averaged 35.5 minutes in the two games of the NCAA tournament, plus 15 points and 3.5 assists. He only committed one turnover in the two games combined. Forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl was named third All-American team by Sporting News with an average of 16 points and 8.3 rebounds. He is comfortable operating away from the basket and into the post. He’s talented enough that true greatness seems close at hand, and he averaged 22 points in the March playoff games. Jermaine Samuels is a versatile and reliable forward who has improved his shooting touch.

Best Individual Game: Mitchell vs Moore

Baylor’s Davion Mitchell is considered one of the best defensemen in college basketball, which should make his action against Villanova’s Justin Moore a vital part of the game’s development. Moore is new to the game. that level – Gillespie averaged nearly 34 minutes per game – and his injury and Villanova’s inability to stay alive in the Big East tournament limited the possibility of making a full role adjustment. Mitchell could make him very uncomfortable launching the attack, although Moore is a great guard who could use his strength and length to his advantage.

Baylor vs Villanova stats you should know

By the tiniest of margins, Wisconsin fell short of becoming the 10th consecutive major opponent to score 1.0 points per possession or better against Baylor’s once-powerful defense. (Badgers got 0.98). The Bears were 9-2 in that streak, so their powerful offense was able to compensate, but remember they were 15-0 before the start. The decline in defensive effectiveness was largely attributed to the program’s three-week COVID hiatus, but the slippage had already started.

Get to know… MaCio Teague

A 6-4 junior for the Bears, Teague is nominated for the Jerry West Award, which is presented by the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame to the nation’s best shooting goaltender. Teague was lightly recruited in both high school and prep school, but after two years at UNC Asheville was able to transfer to Baylor. It only seems a slight coincidence that the Bears made it to the top four teams in the country when they became eligible in 2019-2020, averaging 13.9 points and 35.5% long-range shooting. distance. This season he’s been consistently excellent, improving those numbers to 16.1 points and 39.7% deep. He has made 281 lines in his career. And he’s one of those long distance specialists who don’t shrink as they move inside the line. He converts 54.3% of his attempts by 2 points.

Baylor vs Villanova prediction

Final score: Baylor 79, Villanova 72

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