Look at Sinema’s trend over the past two years in the Senate:
It went from 41% favorable, 35% unfavorable in early February, to 29% favorable, 40% unfavorable – a spectacular net drop of 17 points overnight. As you can imagine, his number among Democrats dropped precipitously:
That’s a net favorability rating of +23, down from +53. Now, if you were to ask Sinema, she would probably laugh. She thinks Arizona is a bunch of Republicans, so there’s no need to keep Democrats happy. But here’s his problem: His antics don’t just piss off Democrats. It is also losing ground among the independents.
It is now deeply underwater among Independents, dropping from a net favorable rating of +6 to -20 today. As for the Republicans? They never liked her and still don’t like her, she went from 16% favorable, 57% unfavorable, to 15-53 today. No wonder its overall numbers have crumbled to such an extent!
So how does first-year Senator Mark Kelly stack up? Note that it was a reliable Democratic vote, caused no wave, created no problem. Voted for the $ 15 minimum wage. So what does Arizona think of him?
Woah, 48% agree, 41% disapprove. Remember, for Sinema it’s 29-40.
It’s even best among the self-employed!
Kelly is 49-38 at the independents, while Sinema is 24-44. And this after establishing a reliable Liberal vote record, including this fateful increase in the minimum wage.
|Favorability||Kyrsten Cinema||Mark Kelly|
Sinema appears oblivious to the changes in her condition. We are no longer talking about Arizona, which gave birth to the modern conservative movement. Rather, it is Arizona with rapidly growing and politically engaged Latin American and American Indian communities, as well as shifting educated suburbs.
The only good news for Sinema is that she won’t be re-elected for another four years. But at this current trajectory, his re-election is far from assured, let alone surviving what should be an inevitable primary.